Update 23.11.2023
Energy prices broadly maintained their downward trend in the 2022/23 heating season, with gas prices as high as €25/MWh (Dutch TTF) in May 2023. This meant that the pre-crisis level had already been reached and some producers decided to suspend the energy surcharges. However, some others continued to apply them despite the low energy values, or at least reduced them.
It is clear that energy and therefore also energy surcharges are very volatile, as emotions also play a role in this sector due to stock market trading and the influence of global trade. If a strike is threatened at a large LNG (liquefied natural gas) plant in Australia, the potential impact on the global market is calculated and the European gas price, and therefore the energy surcharge, rises. This happened in late summer/autumn 2023.
For these reasons and due to the start of the 2023/24 heating period, the gas price has risen again to currently €45 - €50/MWh (Dutch TTF).
This will lead to the reinstatement of the suspended energy surcharges and to significant increases in all energy surcharges. However, we will probably not reach the levels of last year, but the energy surcharge will once again play an important role in the stainless steel price calculation.
If you don't want to be surprised by the energy and alloy surcharges, why not test our forecasting service for 6 weeks completely free of charge and without obligation. During this time, you can get an idea of our services and then decide whether you would like to continue to benefit from LZ-Prognose.de and our alloy surcharge and energy surcharge forecasts.
More information: 6-Week-Free-Trial
Update 07.10.2022
Since September, energy surcharges have become increasingly relevant to the total price. For some products, the energy surcharge already accounts for 30-40% of the total surcharges.
Therefore, we at LZ-prognose.de have decided to include the energy surcharges in our product portfolio so that they can now also be forecast 2 - 3 months in advance for our customers.
What is the outlook for the energy surcharge?
The gas price peak at the end of August due to the shutdown of Nordstream 1 from Russia caused energy surcharges to rise extremely in September. However, the lack of gas from Russia was compensated for in the short term by supplies from Norway. This led to falling gas prices, so that the energy surcharges are expected to fall from November.
Would you also like to benefit from the energy surcharge forecasts and stay up to date?
Try us for 6 weeks free of charge and without obligation with unlimited access to over 2000 alloy surcharges and energy surcharge forecasts.
More information: 6-Week-Free-Trial
Update 26.07.2022
Flat products
Outokumpu (D): without energy surcharge
Aperam (F): separate energy surcharge (for calculation see: https://www.aperam.com/alloys/2022-energy-surcharge/)
Acerinox (E): separate energy surcharge
ATI, Cliffs, NAS (US): included in alloy surcharge
Bars
DEW (D): separate energy surcharge, in our opinion also partly included in alloy surcharge
Outokumpu (D): included in alloy surcharge
Cogne (I): included in alloy surcharge
Ugitech (F): separate energy surcharge, in our opinion also partly included in alloy surcharge
Acerinox (E): included in alloy surcharge
NAS (US): included in alloy surcharge
Hollow steel
MST (D): separate energy surcharge, in our opinion also partly included in alloy surcharge
Tubacex (E): not included in alloy surcharge, no information about separate surcharge.
Information to the best of our knowledge and without guarantee.
