Trendsetting Accuracy

The accuracy of our forecasts is the benchmark we use for measuring our success

Note: The high deviation in June 2022 resulted from a change in the manufacturer's calculation method. For more details see Change in alloy surcharge calculation method in June and July 2022.

How we proceed:

1. We analyze raw materials markets, looking particularly at the supply and demand situation
2. We create expert opinions about contracts for non-listed metals, such as ferrochrome and ferromolybdenum..
3. From the collected data, we calculate a forecast for the future based on probabilities.
4. With our simulated calculation method and the raw material forecasts, we finally determine the alloy surcharges reliably and precisely.


In the last years we detected the right trend (increase/decrease) 1 month prior to the publication of the alloy surcharge nearly every time exact.
Our forecasts 4 weeks prior notification had an accuracy of about 97%, 3 weeks prior to the publication of over 98%.
You get one month prior notification detailled and especially precise alloy forecasts

Only partly predictable factors:

Extreme and unpredictable fluctuations in the exchange rate of raw materials and foreign exchange and changes in the manufacturer's calculation of alloy surcharges.

We react immediately to such events by making corrections to our forecasts. This means that you are always up to date in these extraordinary situations - with a high level of security.